Sorry, I am finding the post confusing.

What is the green frequentist curve on this graph? If we take the frequentist estimate of 0.75 of getting heads than that is just a single point, not a distribution. Also the 0.75 would be an estimate - not a true probability value (since that would require infinite tosses).

With frequentism you start with the hypothesis (e.g. the hypothesis might be that the probability of heads is 0.5) You then look at the data and see if it aligns with the hypothesis. …

Its a tragedy.


H5N1 avian flu emerged in china in 2003. As of May 2020, the WHO reported a total of 861 confirmed human cases which resulted in the deaths of 455 people. It was observed that cases occurred in people handling birds. There was no human to human transmission. But the possibility that a mutant form could arise that led to this transmission was real and scary. There would have been a pandemic.

In 2011 Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus medical center in Rotterdam presented work where he created a pandemic virus. H5N1 was passed through ferrets, an…

Wild stuff? — you be the judge!

The three outcomes

What is the future for the USA with the most important election in a generation approaching?

There seem to be three main outcomes, taking these from best to worst


Massive majority for Joe Biden.

Although Trump will claim that is is due to “massive fraud” and try to contest the results, the scale of his defeat may give his enablers pause for thought. With his army of sycophants crumbling Trump may not be able to instigate the indefinite legal tangles and chaos that is his aim. In this case…

Letter to a plutocrat considering supporting Trump

Dear Plutocrat,

The year is 2025, Donald Trump is president.

He won by the rules, as they are now.

Adaptable, you are. You are to attend a glittering reception where the man-child-god will be in attendance. There may be business opportunities!

Central to the reception is a huge and hideous cake! Encrusted with real diamonds and gemstones, people are excited when they get a slice, how much is it worth?

You find an opportunity to sidle up to the man-child-god, seeking to make smalltalk you comment on the cake’s design. …

Michael Lipkin

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