Thanks for the information but my current thinking is that is no such thing as 'foreign policy'.

Although there are institutions (such as the one you mentioned) dedicated to it, people studying it as part of their life's work, and journals dedicated to it. It simply does not exist.

All decisions r.e. 'foreign policy' are made with regards to immediate electoral advantage and the 'foreign policy' establishment then rationalises it.

If Bin Laden hadn't escaped they wouldn't have stayed. In addition the invasion of Iraq took place since it was felt that the American public has not seen enough 'things exploding' to sate their rage from the 9/11 atrocity and therefore there were some votes in it.

(Saddam Hussein was a thorn in the side to US interests but unrelated to 9/11).

The recent sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan is part of Biden's electoral positioning for the mid terms and 2024. Throwing a bone to the Trump supporting part of the electorate to try and peel some of them off to vote for him.

The cost of and consequences of the decision for others is simply not part of the calculation.

I do not have an answer for preventing these terrible tragedies but in order to fix a problem we first need to recognise it.